The 2013 is coming to an end. No doubt, that this year was extremely difficult, if we analyze it through the prism of international relations. The world has not become more stable, reliable and promising. On some dimensions it even gives more concerns than ever, and on other dimentions the shifts on the world geopolitical plateau can be considered as positive. The countries of the Arab awakening were still far from demonstrating the signs of recovery and stabilization. Syria went through one more bloody year of the civil war, that this time has become very Afghanistan alike – partisan extremist war against government forces. This year the growing interdependences between the continental Africa and the Middle East determined by the spreading of the radical Islam and intensification of its manifestations and activities have become more evident than ever. The 2013 has become a year of growing pressure on ethnic, and especially on religious minorities in the Middle East. This year we became witnesses of the decay of the hegemony of the United States, it has appeared even more fragile, than it could be expected. And this is true for both political and economic dimensions. One more interesting feature to be underlined is the reinforcement of the United Nations Organization that seemed very dilapidated during the decade. This year has shown that the UN can still influence international relations and order them in conformity with existing international lawes and the Security Council has sustained its status of effective crisis manager (for ex. cases of Mali and Central African Republic), even despite its inability to bring the Syrian war to an end. Iran has started its way back to the international community with major assistance of Russian diplomacy, reasonableness of Barack Obama and certainly thanks to the new face of the state political leader, thanks to the arrival into the presidentship of more liberal and less conservative in comparison to his predecessor, president Hassan Rouhani.
The 2013 has so many remarkable traits that it will be very long to enumerate them all. So I’d like to attract your attention to the major trends, better say mega-trends. And these mega-trends appear to be relatively positive ones.
1. The first signs of a true multipolar world
The 2013 should become an epochal milestone in the history of international relations. On the contemporary world stage no country has undoubted hegemony or advantage over the others. No country has an ability to dictate its will or impose whatever it wants. Even if the motivation and expectations of several powers stay the same, they face the overwhelming barriers to bring their will on the playground, as their old methods don’t work and the “new” ones are reluctantly taken from the dusty shelves. Diplomacy has got its new birth as the key instrument of conflict and disputes regulation. If we talk about the outstanding accord on chemical weapons, the Syrian case and the incredible success of Russian diplomacy, are among the most significant manifestations of these trends. More than ever the countries are tuned on communication with each other, as the world is changing to fast to react on on-going challenges unilaterally, without intensive consultations with others. And so all players are trying to avoid any jerky movement and steps, as in the current situation it is too dangerous to take any actions without deep political expertise and analysis predicting possible consequences of political maneuvers. Political processes are slowing down. Countries that cannot be classified as great powers, however now feel that they can freely express themselves on the world stage and other international players will mostly hear their voices – this trend is demonstrated on the example of Latin American countries.
2. The changing roles of global players and institutions.
Following the previously mentioned trend, it’s evident that roles of actors are changing. The states are still the key players of the world stage, but their role is strengthening as of the basic and key element of international relations. Most of the existing international institutions are facing serious challenges. European Union is still struggling with the economic crisis, and several members are still far from recovery. Even the ugly-played-game, practically the hysteria over Ukraine seems to be more like desperate and vain attempts of a patient to prove that his is not ill anymore, than a policy of adequate and strong Union, international political institution. Several countries are thinking over the real possibility to leave the European family for the independent future.
The partnership in the Mediterranean region is practically paralyzed, and exist only on the level of bilateral relations. For effective functioning of the Union for Mediterranean, or whatever integration processes or institutions in the region, there is always a need for strong leaders on both sides of the Mediterranean sea. 2013 has shown, that there is still no leader. France, the main engine of integration in the region, according to talks and interviews with major French experts and politicians, feels itself lost in this field and has no idea what to do and French diplomacy just tries to do something with no any strategy or even logic to avoid being accused of doing nothing on the field. The countries of the South Mediterranean are still far from stabilization and there is no leader and he cannot be expected in the near future, no leader who could bring the Southern Mediterranean to unite and to have effective talks over the common future.
NATO is loosing its weight, becoming something like a political-debate club on trans-atlantic agenda.
UN is recovering, and returns on the world stage as the key actor, damping down the voices of its criticizers. No country has appeared to dare break the veto and to intervene in Syria. However someone can say, Obama wanted to do it, but it was the Congress who didn’t let him realize his plans. One should be blind not to understand the game of Obama. He had known the results of the Congress vote even before his speech, when he declared that he would let the Congress decide to intervene in Syria or not (intervention would have been aerial, not a ground war). He was just flexing his muscle and he was trying to show the difference between him and Jeorge Bush Junior. And France, lead by a short-sighted president, proclaiming that what the US decides, it will fully support the decision, whatever says the National Assembly, showed itself as «a real free democratic state, keeping the title of a great power».
In the epoch of great transformations the states are trying to find something stable to lean on. And UN and international law seem to be the most reliable and stable institutions among the sea of blusterous uncertainty.
3. The outstanding victories of Russian diplomacy and the rise of emerging countries.
Russia, like it or not, is a great winner of the 2013. Syrian treaty over chemical weapons, the success in constructing of the Customs Union, Iranian problem - these three pillars are enough to see how the Russian external policy has changed. The most expensive policy is a policy towards the Middle East as it demands really outstanding efforts to concur with the traditional players in the region such as the United States, United Kingdom or France. Russia was off the region for a rather long period after the collapse of the USSR, but this year it has shown that it will participate in the Middle Eastern processes, and moreover it will carry out its own politics, it wants to be active, and what is more important, it has already accumulated enough resources to defend its interests, at least in the current circumstances of democratic presidency and serious internal problems in the US, lack of understanding of what is going on and confusion of European leading actors. The first signs of changes had appeared earlier, but this year they were more concrete. We should not overestimate its capacities, but it would be wrong not to recognize its success. Russia has caught the right wave and adapted to the changing realities faster than others.
Russia feels no more limited in its actions by other «Great powers» and freely maneuvers in the geopolitical space. Furthermore the same freedom is felt by such undoubted actors as China, Brazil, India. All four members of BRICS have shown their power to be equal members of the international community. Russia and China have demonstrated their unity and firmness on the key issues of the international agenda and their firm adherence to the international law and to UN as the key instruments of the world community management and regulation.
The world would never be the same. The shifts and large scale restructurisation leads to the new international world order, that for the first time could be justly called the «multipolar». Will the world be more stable and reliable? The time will show. It can make the international community flourish, if the countries that got used to the hegemony and their peoples will rethink their stereotypes and admit the ability of others to have their own vision of international realities, their external interests, and to let others build their own future without any destructive influence of external players.
