The election campaign in Israel is attracting increasingly more attention with the approach of the election date. The elections of 17 March 2015 are early elections. The government composed of different political parties with Likud and right-wing domination has had a difficult time during the 20 months at power. The war in Gaza, the differences about budget, an attempt to pass a law about the Jewish nature of the state, and finally the recent accusations of corruption against Netanyahu and his wife, will all together influence the upcoming choice of the electorate. However, there are also rather stable factors that benefit the right. Nevertheless, the centrist-left block has started gaining points, having virtually reached Likud. Currently the right-wing Likud block led by Benjamin Netanyahu and its opponent Zionist Camp block with Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni at the head receive approximately the same amount of votes according to the preliminary estimations. For example, the survey by Haaretz newspaper made in the beginning of February 2015 shows that Likud can receive 25 seats in Knesset, just two more than the Zionist Camp. Such slight divide between the main contenders indicates that the final voting results may favor any party. The main question is who will have more chances to create a coalition in case of victory.
Much will depend on the ability of centrists and left to increase their support by attracting a part of right electorate – the name of their block (“Zionist Camp”) is definitely aimed at a more ideologized Israeli audience. Netanyahu has deliberately made his political opponents act fast by announcing the snap elections in order to seize the initiative. Both right and left forces have issues here. The case is that the programs of both blocks are rather parallel than competitive. The left focus on social aspects, what is for sure important for the electorate, though their hopes concerning security are traditionally connected with Likud. The Israeli Jews clearly distinguish between personal and state security. While the state security has increased due to the chaos and destabilization in the Arab world, the issue of personal security becomes sharper as the threat of terrorism increases. Cognitive dissonance is natural for the Jewish population of Israel and it directly influences on the political choice of the electorate. On the one hand Israel is the most powerful and efficient in the military domain state in the Middle East. On the other – lives of Jews are still threatened not only in the Middle East but also even in the calm and secure Europe. So the surprising unanimity among the electorate on the success of the previous government and their readiness to see Netanyahu as a Prime Minister again. In the end of January 65% of the respondents expressed their discontent with Netanyahu’s policy as a Prime Minister. The same people stated that he is likely to become the PM once again. However, only 30% really wish him to get into office again. It is of course not much, but Isaac Herzog has even less chances to obtain this post – only 11% consider him a suitable candidate.
Thus, both centrists and left besides the social-economic agenda have to focus much on the settlement of the Palestinian problem, some new ideas of increase of cooperation with several Arab countries, mainly with Egypt and Jordan, in the security domain.
Coalition of centrists and leftish forces, according to its partisans, could come out for the relaunch of the negotiations with the Palestinians, freezing of settlements, dialogue with Arab states on the basis of the Arab initiative, for search of decisions for Gaza together with Egypt and Jordan. When it comes to the security, both the right and the left speak about the same – Islamic terrorism, Iran, etc., but they have different means. For example the left believe that the Iranian problem should be resolved together with the US, and that the Palestinian problem should be solved in order to fight ISIS together with Arabs. The occupation is sacred for the right. And they will do anything to preserve the settlements, hence, the military presence.
How can the present Israeli society be characterized? First of all it remains fragmentized. According to Israeli researchers, there is an escalating conflict of two peoples within the Jewish population of Israel. The number of Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox (Haredim) is constantly growing. Coming from poor uneducated layers from small towns, they are very conservative. They prefer that all the life in Israel is regulated by religious norms. The post-modern society is composed of the representatives of educated class, inhabitants of large cities. These two parts of Jewish people have different priorities, views and perceptions. The Orthodox Jews do not care about the peace process and do not need it, and they stay in the reserve for right and religious parties, and what is more they benefit from their demographics.
Finally, the right can also be backed by the important part of ex-Soviet immigrants. They are pro powerful state, decisiveness and toughness in politics, and they associate it with the right. Moreover, they have preserved a genetic repulsion to socialism.
The voting activity also plays a certain role. Generally a high turnout is typical of Israel, but it is not evenly distributed. Among Haredim and religious Jews it is 95%, 85% among the settlers and is not more than 70% among the city dwellers. So, the rights have better chances.
And yet, taking into consideration that both blocks claim virtually the same amount of votes, there is a question whether a viable government can be created. In case of victory both Likud and Zionist Union will get opportunity to create a narrow coalition government, i.e. either a right narrow government or a centrist-left one. Such governments are unstable and it will be difficult for them to pass important decisions through Knesset. Moreover, creating a narrow coalition Netanyahu will also face his political opponents, primarily with Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu and Moshe Kahlon, who left Likud and created his own Kulanu party in November 2014. It can be very challenging to negotiate with them during the creation of a narrow coalition.
For Herzog and Livni a narrow coalition means even less stability and more vulnerability of the government than the right one. It is unclear whether they will be able to create such a coalition or after fruitless attempts they will have to pass this right to Likud according with the Israeli legislation.
Quite possibly, a government of wide coalition could be a decision for both blocks. As some Israeli observers believe, Netanyahu was not always a successful Prime Minister, but he can be a trustful partner. Finally, a government of wide coalition based on both blocks may allow to cut off the most uncompromising ultra-right, what would generally correspond to the Israeli national interests.
Text in Russian is available here (published by MGIMO-University)
