Right after the Russian fighter jet was downed by the Turkish F16 over Syria, most of the commentators expressed confidence that Moscow would not go to escalation over the incident.

The reasons they gave were simple. Turkey did not join the Western sanctions following the Ukrainian crisis. Russia depends a lot on Turkish imports, and trade was rising. Russia needs Turkey to avoid gas transit to Europe through Ukraine. Turkey was the number one destination for Russian tourists, and the two countries have a lot of projects in the economic, industrial and energy spheres.

The only point they missed in their analyses, however, was that Russia stopped being properly rational some time ago.

Deterioration of relations

Russia and Turkey had been developing their relations over two years, despite their disagreement over the situation in Syria and future of Bashar al-Assad.

The first signs of a deterioration in relations came right after the launch of Russian airstrikes in Syria. Four days before the downing of the fighter jet, Ankara demanded the immediate cease of operations, and threatened serious consequences in case Russia ignored its warnings.

The Turkish “stab in the back” came with the downing of Su-24, when the deterioration reached its apogee. The red line was crossed. From this point the relations between the two countries degraded, putting the world on a very dangerous path.

Economic interests

It was wrong of political experts, politicians and world leaders to expect Russia to forgive the death of its pilot and the downing of its jet for the sake of economic interests.

Following the huge economic losses as a result of the sanctions imposed on it by its Western counterparts, Russia has started a very risky play on the international stage. What really matters for the Russian leaders now is to defend the image of a powerful, mighty and uncompromising country, ready to bear losses in defending its rightfulness and vital national interests. It is a luxury that not all countries can afford.

From the Russian side the most vital thing in the current situation is to save face and to respond to the Turkish slap in the face. It’s a matter of honor and thus irrational.

Maria Dubovikova

Russia took steps to punish Turkey. It effectively banned outbound tourism to Turkey, which is likely to cost Turkey billions of dollars per year. Many mutually profitable projects across many spheres will be suspended. Russian companies will be banned from employing Turkish citizens from Jan. 1. Many Turkish organisations, including cultural ones, will be closed or their activities will be highly limited by the Russian authorities, and the process has already started.

The cultural ties were the first to feel the blow of the Russian reaction to the Turkish provocation. Many of the measures also cause considerable damage to the Russian economy and interests. Turkey’s move to create difficulties for some Russian ships passing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles is not in Russian interests at all. However from the Russian side the most vital thing in the current situation is to save face and to respond to the Turkish slap in the face. It’s a matter of honor, and thus irrational.

Fight against ISIS

Among other things, Russia accuses Turkey of not playing fair in the fight against ISIS. After the accusations were officially announced, many international journalists from some of the most powerful news agencies – including The Guardian, Financial Times and New York Times – agreed that the accusations were not groundless.

It is globally acknowledged that Turkey is a jihadi hub, and a gateway that provides ISIS with new recruits from all over the world. Calls for Turkey to close its Southern border remain unheard by Ankara, despite Moscow’s accusations.

Turkey prefers to shunt the attention on to other subjects, such as its right to defend itself, as if Russia was menacing Turkey. Nevertheless, the Russian calls for a deeper investigation into the matter remain unheard, and the European Union earlier this week promised Turkey visa-free entrance for its citizens, in return for Turkey helping stem the flow of refugees into Europe. The West cannot afford the luxury of being principled, as the military bases and aerodromes are far more precious than any proof of Turkey's involvement in the ISIS business.

However, the escalation can go too far and can threaten not only the international fight on ISIS, which has just shown the first signs of coordination following the Paris attacks and efforts of the French president, but also global stability and peace. Russia's deployment of its sophisticated S-400 air defence system in Syria, and the presence of Turkish submarines near the Russian cruiser Moskva, have put the world one step away from a full-scale war.

The problem with Turkey for Russia and the international community is its NATO membership. And even if Turkey itself put the world on the doorsteps of the World War III, in case of the further escalation the NATO members will have to take its side.

Such escalation is extremely undesirable for all sides. However the risk of dramatic mistakes from the confronting sides is extremely high. And the risks are becoming even greater, taking into account that now there are too many NATO-member forces involved in the fight against ISIS, and not all of them are going to coordinate with Russia.

ISIS is the first terrorist organization to have successfully gained power through the use of modern media.

Its media system is working in two key dimensions. First of all, it targets the audience inside the ISIS ranks. Propaganda is used to maintain morale and to manipulate ISIS fighters.

Secondly it targets the “outside” audience. The propaganda is performed on both systemic level – through the so-called Al Hayat Media Center, the ISIS media arm – and on the network level, through social media, messengers, Skype and the direct work on the ground of so-called “ISIS emissaries”, or recruiters.

The Al Hayat Media Center produces videos shared via social media and mobile messengers, as well as publishing journals in several languages, with most issues weighing in at 60 to 70 pages.

The words of the Quran, and the true sense of Islam, should be the main weapon in this war on ISIS propaganda.

Maria Dubovikova

That’s 60 to 70 glossy pages of total evil, blood and terror – with the name of Allah and quotations from the Quran repeated on the each page, even though ISIS has nothing in common either with Allah or the Quran. The group just use both for the sake of its own devilish and bloody interests.

The core of the propaganda is the idea of “us and them”. We are righteous Muslims, ISIS declare. “They” are kafirs – infidels – and crusaders.

But ISIS is also putting Muslim communities under pressure, through threats and oppression. The group knows that even the calmest Muslims cannot bear sustained oppression and humiliation for a long time, and finally they will become radicalized.

So why is ISIS propaganda proving so successful? The reasons are simple.

1. Visual communication

The first reason is the high quality work produced by ISIS ideologists, with specialist design and promotion. The visual quality of their journals is very high. Across the world, societies value images over text, and so ISIS has chosen the right form of propaganda. By spreading images through the modern media, ISIS reaches millions of people.

2. Preying on ignorance

The second reason is the historically ill-conceived system of integration of Muslim immigrants in Western societies, and the lack of a coherent promotion of the true image of moderate Islam to the broader public. ISIS is successfully using religious texts, playing on the weak religious literacy of some Muslims, and an absolute ignorance of many non-Muslims about Islam.

3. West’s Mideast policy

The third reason is the Western countries’ policy in the Middle East leading to the chaos in the region. The dangerous play on the discords and the regional contradictions, and the imposition of Western models of behavior and politics inapplicable to the region, lead to the growth of anti-Western sentiments and tensions inside the societies. This is successfully used by the ISIS ideologists. ISIS constantly reminds people of what it sees as historical injustice, or a constant humiliation by the West – the ‘kafirs’, the ‘crusaders’ – on Muslim civilization. ISIS uses the actions of the international coalition and Russian ideologists to promote the idea that the West and Russia are waging a war against the Muslim world.

4. Social environment

The fourth reason for the propaganda success is the state of the social environment. The modern world is gradually losing its reference points for values. This is witnessed in the mutation of the institution of family, social isolation, and the paradox of wealthy societies, in which some are led to seek thrilling experiences. The social inequality and lack of justice also play to the hand of ISIS. And to the lonely, ISIS promotes the idea of a society where everyone is a brother or sister. They promise justice and equality. But they also propose a ‘thrilling’ experience – to those who are seeking it: to kill not only in PC games, but in real life.

How to fight the war

The moment to counter the propaganda battle is already lost. And while there is no guarantee we will win the wider war, there is still a chance to fight an idea with another. And the words of the Quran, and the true sense of Islam, should be the main weapon in this war on ISIS propaganda.

initially published by Al Arabiya: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2015/12/10/ISIS-s-propaganda-success-and-how-to-fight-it.html

During last week’s G20 summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that according to his country’s intelligence, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is financed by private individuals from 40 countries, some of them G20 members.

He highlighted the scale of the illegal trade in oil and petroleum products. “The motorcade of refuelling vehicles stretched for dozens of kilometers, so that from a height of 4,000 to 5,000 meters they stretch beyond the horizon,” Putin said, comparing the convoy to gas and oil pipeline systems.

Turkey is using its involvement in the fight against ISIS to hit the Kurds, whose militias are among the most effective forces against the group in Syria. Turkey’s weakly controlled 565-mile southern border is the main gateway for foreign extremists from all over the world to join ISIS. In Turkey jihadists get all they need, even fake ID cards and passports.

Ankara violated international law, as the jet should have been escorted away from Turkish airspace, not shot down

Maria Dubovikova

Ankara apparently does little to stop these dangerous activities. The passports of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks were fake and made in Turkey. Turkish businessmen make deals with ISIS oil smugglers, providing the group with billions of dollars.

After the G20 summit, Russia launched a true war against ISIS’s oil infrastructure and the caravans of trucks transporting oil to the Turkish border. This has made Ankara nervous. Last week, following intense Russian bombing in Syria along the Turkish border, Ankara summoned the Russian ambassador, warning that bombing Turkmen villages could lead to “serious consequences,” and urging Moscow to “to immediately end its operation.”

The whole article is available here: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2015/11/25/Turkey-s-downing-of-a-Russian-jet-is-a-grave-error.html 

Washington and Moscow have been recently trying to find common ground in resolving the Syrian crisis. Attempts have been made via phone calls between Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin, as well as through diplomatic contacts and expert consultations. The two sides have been assessing each other’s positions, limits and flexibility to make concessions.

Following these efforts, Obama decided to authorize air protection for U.S.-trained Syrian rebels fighting against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) by bombing any force that attacks them, including the Syrian army.

Washington is thereby pressing Moscow and Damascus, and showing them how far it is ready to go to achieve a transition in Syria, as it had previously been reluctant to involve U.S. military forces.

The decision to form an international coalition to hit ISIS in Iraq and Syria has caused much anxiety in Damascus and Moscow, as they expected Washington to use this opportunity to target the Syrian army.

By authorizing the protection of rebel forces, Washington is constricting the corridor for negotiations. Remarkably, this decision was announced just before the trilateral meeting in Doha of Russian, American and Saudi officials, whose agenda included Syria.  

Little hope of political transition

Moscow and Washington understand the importance of the transition of power in Syria. In Doha, they renewed their call for a managed political transition. The difference between Washington and Moscow is in the perception of when it should be done. Russia considers the highest priority now to be the fight against ISIS, in which Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a partner.

However, in a strategy that has not yet produced anything positive, Washington is trying to solve the Syrian internal problem and fight ISIS simultaneously. The problem is that the Syrian army is still one of the forces on the ground containing the spread of ISIS. Without the army, ISIS could spread further and take Damascus.

There is currently little hope for an adequate political transition, with more than 4 million Syrians as refugees, and disagreement over the mechanisms behind such a transition and the figures to be included.

Another problem is that Russia’s influence on the Syrian regime is highly overestimated. Assad is not an easy counterpart to press and to push, and will not leave his post in the near future. By threatening to hit his army if it attacks U.S.-trained rebels, Washington is trying to convince him otherwise.

As U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter told lawmakers, only 60 recruits have passed their training. Already half the $500 million budget has reportedly been spent. Washington expects to have 3,000 recruits by the end of the year, so it is easy to see how high expenses will rise. Taking into account the estimated size of ISIS – between 20,000 and 200,000 militants – the number of trained rebels is a drop in the ocean.

By authorizing the protection of rebel forces, Washington is constricting the corridor for negotiations. 

Maria Dubovikova

With air protection, they will hardly ever be involved in fighting as any battle will be prevented by massive U.S. airstrikes. Another problem is that if they are trained like the post-Saddam Iraqi army was, they will be virtually useless.

Thus announcing air protection for rebels is mostly a pretext for intervening in the Syrian crisis and sending a strong message to Damascus and Moscow. The possibility of a transition of power in Syria remains a distant prospect.

Migration flows in the Mediterranean are nothing new. According to the official data, an average of almost 40,000 people (on the basis of monitoring between 1998-2013) cross the Mediterranean sea per year to reach its northern shores. It’s a drop in the sea if we were to compare this figure to the numbers of immigrants admitted to the EU every year, that is reportedly over 1.5 million persons.

South to North migration in the Mediterranean is a given reality preconditioned by the differences in the development between the two shores of the Mediterranean, and by the challenges and problems in the southern part as well. In other words, by the issues plaguing Africa and the Middle East. Running from extreme poverty, low levels of living quality, and conflicts, the issues are forcing people to seek a better life in the developed Western world, notably in Europe.

However, dreams about the European paradise soon crumble as the migration flows are more intensive than the capabilities of the receiving side and the final destination is far from paradise itself. The problem resides also in the historical insufficiency and inadequacy of the measures in the majority of the receiving countries to effectively integrate the newcomers into society. It is the aggregate disillusionment of newcomers and the limited migration policy that creates a delayed-action bomb in Western societies.

Read more: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/world/2015/07/15/Keeping-an-eye-on-migration-flows-in-the-Mediterranean.html 

Estimations of the size of the ISIS army differs from 20,000 to 200,000 militants. What is clear is that the recruitment drive is intensifying. Recruiters fuel the ISIS forces coming both from the territories taken by ISIS and the web it effectively uses as its soft power.

ISIS–held territory is rich in natural recourses and the negligence of some players provides them with the financial capital needed to make their system function and to guarantee its relatively stable existence. 

The recent trends show that ISIS recruitment doesn’t only seek to make people come to the territories of the self-proclaimed Caliphate, but to make each recruiter a terrorist cell himself: its leader, member and soldier.

There is no more need for sophisticated, expensive terrorist plans. After the Arab Spring, the Libyan collapse and the devastating consequences of the Syrian civil war and the Iraqi collapse, access to weapons that flooded the region became an easy matter.

Luring in vulnerable minds

The over-simplified scheme of luring in vulnerable minds with false religious promises is still being practiced in such places as Tunisia. For the most part, ISIS members are far from representatives of the prosperous, successful and well-educated circles of society. They emerge mostly from the most socially risky underprivileged classes, who have a limited future in the societies to which they belong, or just have a strong feeling of the unfairness of the world and system they live in. Some people are joining ISIS to achieve Paradise, some for money, some for equity that the supposed Islamic State also promises. So, ISIS has the most dangerous army, full of blind and thoughtless people with already washed out brains and a strong feeling of resentment and the will to fight for their miserable state.

We should be ready to witness the new destruction of the World Heritage monuments, to witness and to “thank” world leaders for making all this nightmare possible through their lack of will

Thus there are many scenarios of ISIS’ survival as a state or state-like structure and one can only guess at when it will collapse. And even its collapse also promises nothing good to the international community. Thus, both options have negative elements, one more than the other, either ISIS will stay or ISIS will fall.

On the one hand we have the most probable development of the situation, in which ISIS will stay and all the current effort of the international community will collapse as it is ineffective and out-of-date in the face of the new challenges. 

To read the whole article: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2015/07/08/Any-decision-on-ISIS-is-too-little-too-late.html 

The well-known recent gains by jihadists in Syria and Iraq, both in the military and the political spheres, have become an issue of serious concern for the Russian leadership. Unlike the West and many regional partners in the fight against terrorism, Russia continues to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — possibly to an even greater extent than before — as an important ally in this struggle, and one who is almost single-handedly leading the fight. This is not the main point of contention, however. If those who refuse to cooperate with the government in Damascus on this basis believe that the jihadist wave will subside with Assad’s departure, in Moscow they are convinced that this will mean victory for Islamist radicals who will come to power in Damascus and then expand.

As is known, Moscow’s support for an inclusive national dialogue as the only possible way out of the Syrian crisis prompted the Russian Foreign Ministry to hold two inter-Syrian consultative meetings this year in the Russian capital with the participation of a number of opposition and civil society groups, as well as a delegation of the Syrian government, in which I acted as a moderator. These meetings appear to have played a positive role, if only because the conflicting parties listened to one another for a few days. They reaffirmed their commitment to exclusively political and peaceful means to resolve the crisis, to the principles of the Geneva Protocol dated June 30, 2012, and to the need for a Geneva III conference. They even managed to (almost) agree on a number of very sensitive issues and that in the next phase of consultations, they would begin discussing the most difficult problem, namely a transitional governance system for the country. Intransigence on a number of the most pressing challenges interrupted the dialogue and prevented progress, however.

In the course of the second meeting, held April 6-9, representatives of the opposition forces worked to develop a joint document to submit to the government delegation, but differences continued to divide them regarding the current situation (for instance, the withdrawal of foreign fighters and militias from the country) and the future of Syria (for example, whether the country will be a unitary or a decentralized federal state). The document produced at the "Moscow platform," which consisted of 10 principles, was initially agreed upon by all parties, only to be subsequently disavowed by a number of them, who were dissatisfied with the obstinacy of the official delegation. Still, the meeting was a unique achievement that no other intermediary country can afford to hold in such a format, namely with the participation of Damascus. Some of the Syrian opposition representatives also sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the need to convene a Geneva III conference.

After the second meeting, the question arose as to whether it would be worth continuing meeting in the same format. There is no answer to this question yet, but it is possible that new initiatives are needed, and in Moscow they are currently pondering this. Russia continues to have influence on the conflicting parties and encourage them to search for compromises. In this context, Moscow is looking closely at the efforts of the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, who on May 5 began in Geneva a six-week round of meetings with representatives of various Syrian groups and the Syrian government with the aim of then developing a road map for a political settlement in Syria.

After a meeting with the special envoy, Moscow-based Qadri Jamil — secretary of the People’s Will Party and a member of the leadership of the Popular Front for Change and Liberation — declared, "The positions of the parties are well known and further consultations will yield no results unless practical steps are taken to start implementing the commitments of Geneva I, held in 2012." The opposition member believes that there is now a need to make the warring parties fulfill the Geneva Protocol, as "appeals are no longer sufficient and the talks will not give any result." The diplomatic corps in the Russian capital are only trying to guess whether and to what extent Jamil’s words reflect Moscow’s official position.

Without waiting for a decision by the Kremlin on whether a Moscow III is necessary, a group of opposition members — led by Paris-based Randa Qassis, chairwoman of the Movement for a Pluralistic Society — seized the initiative to hold consultation meetings (leading some Russian analysts to suggest that French government agencies are behind this idea). They appealed to Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev to organize such an event in Astana. Moscow has never sought to monopolize the role of mediator and reacted favorably to this initiative and others — including meetings in Cairo — aimed at ending the violence in the country. The Syrian government, however, has not expressed interest in participating in the meeting in Astana, which took place May 25-27. The majority of the 27 participants representing several opposition groups also managed to agree on a document of principles to solve the crisis.

Two of those principles are especially significant. The first is the decentralization of Syria, as well as granting the Kurds and the Assyrians the right to "defend their territory against any form of terrorism." The experience of the negotiations in the "Moscow platform" indicates that this idea met with sharp opposition from Arab nationalists in both the government and part of the opposition. And the Kurds, while speaking of Syria's unity, are very unlikely to renounce their already de facto autonomy in the country’s northeast.

The second is the withdrawal of all foreign fighters. If we return again to the experience of the "Moscow platform," I highlight that this statement caused heated debate among the participants. Both representatives of the government in Damascus and a whole range of opposition groups are categorically opposed to equating Hezbollah’s units with foreign jihadists. The reason is that without the help of the Lebanese Shiite militia, the country could have already fallen victim to the Islamic State (IS) and Jabhat al-Nusra. In addition, Hezbollah fighters were invited by the legitimate government and if — purely hypothetically — their units leave the country in an organized fashion on orders from Beirut, there is no such force that would be able to compel all foreign jihadists to exit Syria.

It is not surprising that not all participants in Astana agreed to sign such a document, with six of them writing a separate statement. It is unclear whether the Kazakh government intends to convene Astana II.

As for Moscow, the rising number of extremists traveling to fight in Syria — both from within Russia and from Central Asia — is a subject of growing concern. In this context, the high-profile case of Col. Gulmurod Halimov — the commander of the Tajik elite paramilitary police unit who fled Dushanbe along with a dozen of his subordinates to join IS — was an unpleasant surprise for both the Central Asian governments and Russia. 

Not only has the commander, who clearly has no lack of charisma and has been trained in Russia and the United States, joined the ranks of the jihadists, but he has also addressed his compatriots with an appeal to come to wage jihad in a video on the Tajikistan Live web portal. Many Russian analysts fear that the colonel-turned-jihadist’s appeal can attract, in particular, some of the migrant workers from Tajikistan in Russia, whose total number exceeds 1.2 million. They can either join the 4,000 Central Asian nationals already fighting in Syria for IS, or enter the so-called sleeper cells that IS is establishing in the territory of many countries. I was told about the existence of such cells by a former IS member in Syria who spoke on condition of anonymity. As suggested by Russian analyst Arkady Dubnov, people could be drawn by the criticism leveled at Dushanbe for prohibiting Muslims "to fully celebrate their ceremonies, as well as for closing down mosques" and persecuting the legitimate Islamic Renaissance Party, which "is an alternative to radical Islamic groups."

It is easy to assume that all of this was discussed during a recent meeting between President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry in Sochi. Kerry stressed that Syria will not return to peace until there is a political transfer of power. Russia and the United States agreed to continue their dialogue to find a settlement for Syria in the coming weeks. Assessing the outcome of the meeting May 29, US Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Richard Stengel said that the interests of Moscow and Washington may overlap when it comes to the situation in Yemen, Libya, Syria and the agreement with Iran.

Russia is ready to develop cooperation with the West and the countries of the region in the fight against terrorism. Speaking May 31 on the program "At the heart of events" on Russian TV channel TVC, Lavrov stated that for this cooperation to work, it requires, first of all, "developing a strategy based on a fair joint assessment under the auspices of the Security Council," and second, "adopting resolutions that will legitimize the actions to be taken to combat this threat," be it IS, Jabhat al-Nusra or any other group.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/russia-syria-conflict-strategy-moscow-meetings.html#ixzz3cmBfCUof

An amusing photo has been doing the rounds on social media, depicting “the international community” as being solely comprised of Western states, or Western-affiliated states.

When media reports or politicians say “the international community approves” or “the international community disapproves,” they are really only talking about these countries, forgetting the rest of the world.

While the leaders of the international community discuss the prolongation of sanctions against Russia at the G7 meeting, Russia and Egypt have had their first ever naval drills. The goal of the eight days maneuver was to strengthen military cooperation between the naval forces of the two countries in the interest of security and stability at sea. Earlier, in late May, Russia and China also strengthened their cooperation and ties through military exercises in the Mediterranean, apparently reminding “the international community” that the countries of the rest of the world do exist and their interests and their perception of the global agenda should be taken into account, and what is more, it could differ a lot from what “the international community” thinks.

Current circumstances

In the current circumstances, when relations between the West and Russia are at a low point, the alliance between Russia and Egypt reminds us of the Soviet-Egyptian friendship in the difficult times of the Cold War. Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was among the guests of the Victory Day celebrations in Russia, a sign of the warm relations between the two countries. Nuclear cooperation as well as tourism also highlight warming relations.

However, military cooperation is one of the most successfully developing spheres, and it forms the bases of the general cooperation between the two countries.

The strategic alliance between the two countries is neither a threat to the stability of the countries of the Northern Mediterranean, nor a muscle-flexing game

Maria Dubovikova

The temptation of building parallels of analogies between the present and the past is sweet but much better avoided. The current confrontation is not a new Cold War, at least not yet. This friendship doesn’t have a confrontational core — this friendship is not modeled against other camps or countries.

The sides are motivated to draw together due to common interests, common threats and expected mutual benefits. Russia is not the Soviet Union; it has a market economy, it is integrated in the international trade. The Western sanctions and reciprocal measures taken by the Kremlin have struck the internal economy and pushed the country to the diversification of economic ties, needed long time ago though, thus pushing it towards Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East. Relations with Egypt are important for Russia, but pale in importance and significance to its ties with China and neighboring countries. Russia does not have so much to propose to Egypt to take it in its orbit completely. Furthermore, the existing stereotypes, narrow-mindedness and perceptions deep in the Russian mentality about Egypt, formed mostly in the pools of the all-inclusive Egyptian resorts, ignorance about the country’s history and culture, worsened by the moderate Russian chauvinism towards the Arab world, don’t contribute to the development of relations on the level of civil societies, and even of business circles, thus anchoring the speed of bilateral relations development.

Finding friends

Egypt is not limited by its ties with Russia from doing business with other countries. It takes considerable attempts to attract investments from all over the world in its huge economy that needs to be well fueled to kick start considerable growth - its potential is truly enormous. Egypt recently signed a historical military cooperation protocol with France. It is also upholding traditional ties with the U.S., however, the trust has been undermined.

The epoch of ideology affiliation is over, and logic of ties is dictated by economy, business and other political interests, preconditioned by the internal demands.

The bilateral relations between the two countries are cemented by the truly warm personal relations between national leaders, who have much in common: both strong, powerful and charismatic. The multi-confessional core of the counties, that in the case of Egypt faced a dramatic threat under the Muslim Brotherhood, unites the countries, as well as a moderate conservatism and illiberal democracy that is installed within their borders and raises much criticism from “the international community.”

The strategic alliance between the two countries is neither a threat to the stability of the countries of the Northern Mediterranean, nor a muscle-flexing game. However, the “international community” has too much temptation to look at the matter in this way, especially taking into account the current confrontation between Russia and the West. Mostly it’s a reminder that there is life beyond the borders of “the international community,” that there are players strong enough to form alliances and to have military drills in “the international community’s” backyard. Taking into account the global challenges and threats the world now faces, the strategic alliance between Egypt and Russia should mostly be welcomed, as cooperation between them has a direct influence on the security situation in the regional space and thus is in the interests of all players.

via Al Arabiya English: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2015/05/26/How-can-Russia-contribute-to-the-fight-against-ISIS-.html 

It’s a high time to look at the measures taken by the international community in the fight against ISIS and to ask ourselves a question: If we keep going like this, how soon will ISIS reach the borders of the West? How much has already been lost? How much are we ready to lose in the upcoming months in our unwillingness to change approach, to rethink the situation and to understand that in this war no one can get off lightly. We cannot remain aloof or only relatively involved through assistance and useless air strikes without a full-scale international ground operation and global involvement in the settlement process. While Western aid stays inefficient and insufficient, the countries devastated and suffering under ISIS are seeking other options.

The Iraqi premiere’s visit to Russia is a sign that the pressure of ISIS is becoming enormous and that the country is running out of forces to resist it and has little hope that the sufficient aid will finally come from the West.

Iraq has a long history of bilateral relations with Russia, the rise of which started in the epoch of the Soviet Union. Since 2003 and the U.S. intervention in Iraq, which was strongly condemned by Russia, the contact between the two countries was practically lost and the parties have spent years on rebuilding the ties and once prosperous cooperation. Russia invests a lot in the country even now, when the investments are very risky, and this is highly appreciated by the Iraqis. Russia’s president has mentioned that the overall trade turnover between the two countries stays relatively low, but it has grown ten-fold in the past two years even despite the deep crisis in the Middle East and the economic problems.

Bilateral relations

The visit of the Iraqi PM to Moscow is a continuation of the long and sustainable process of the bilateral relations building, but in the current historical moment it’s much more significant especially in terms of regional stability.

Russia, is a needed partner for Iraq in terms of the urgent weapons deliveries. Russia can really deliver the needed weaponry in the shortest time, with no any precondition or stipulation. Then the price on the Russian weapons is lower, while the quality is very high.

Iraqi military trade with Russia is not a new trend. What is new is the word “aid” that was used while talking about the military cooperation. According to Russian officials, it is eager to take all possible measures to assist Iraq in its fight against ISIS. Iraqi’s PM arrival to Russia for assistance and support doesn’t mean the break of its relations with its Western allies, while the criticism of them will rise in Iraqi decision-making circles. Nevertheless it does not mean that Russia competes with or ousts the traditional dominant players in the region. Firstly it has no such interests, as its presence in the region is still very limited and the region is not in its high priorities. Secondly it has no such capacities and influence.

Non-involvement

The West has been willing to make Russia join the U.S. led anti-ISIS coalition for a long time. Opposing the core and philosophy of the ongoing operation that has no approval and mandate of the key international organization, Russia took the position of non-involvement in the direct fighting however keeping an eye on the processes there and cooperating with the regional powers in terms of security issues as well as delivering weapons to the allied Syrian regime, in what was seen with much skepticism and discontent by the international community. The threat of ISIS is far more tangible threat for Russia than for any other country outside the Middle East.

Now Russia, keen to condemn and demonstrate skepticism towards the coalition forces and measures taken, takes its own steps to contribute to the general attempts to stop the spread of ISIS. These steps and maneuvers are in the interests of all the players.

The problem of the ISIS spread, the barbarity and mass killings that follow each of their victories, needs to be countered by a common and united response. There will soon be a point of no-return, when either we send ISIS to hell or this world is turned into hell by ISIS.

12 мая состоялась церемония открытия Ближневосточной недели МГИМО. В мероприятии принимают участие ведущие специалисты-востоковеды.

Открыл конференцию ректор Университета А.Торкунов. Он подчеркнул, что Ближневосточная неделя стала первой в череде мероприятий, приуроченных к 200-летию Лазаревского института восточных языков. Как отметил А.Торкунов, нет категории людей, которых не затрагивала бы проблематика региона — он привлекает и политиков, и экономистов, и бизнесменов. В данный момент, по словам ректора, эта часть мира переживает эпоху величайших трансформаций. Начавшаяся четыре года назад «арабская весна» не только породила надежды на позитивное преобразование, но и раскрыла накопившийся за длительный период конфликтный потенциал региона. В свою очередь, происходящие конфликты повышают уровень дезинтеграции, который может привести к обострению проблем международной безопасности, изменению траектории мировых торговых и энергетических потоков. Укрепление радикальных исламистских сил может оказать негативное влияние и на ситуацию в некоторых регионах России. По мнению А.Торкунова, в условиях обостряющегося кризиса на Ближнем Востоке России необходимо сохранять сбалансированный подход, а также энергично действовать сразу по нескольким направлениям — вносить свой вклад в укрепление региональной безопасности и выступать посредником в разрешение региональных конфликтов.

Анатолий Васильевич также отметил значимость юбилейных мероприятий для советского и российского востоковедения — специалисты в этой области научного знания уже не одно столетие занимаются ближневосточной проблематикой. Ректор говорил и о богатой коллекции арабских книг, хранящейся в Библиотеке Университета. Рукописи XIII–XV веков уже представлены на портале в оцифрованном виде, а в скором времени планируется выпуск книги о востоковедении МГИМО и изданиях, сохранившихся от Лазаревского института.

Заместитель министра иностранных дел РФ М.Богданов также подчеркнул важность празднования 200-летия Лазаревского института для дипломатии: «Уже тогда у нас существовала профессиональная школа востоковедения». Кроме того, он отметил, что Восток в целом и Ближний Восток в частности всегда занимали особое место в истории Российской Федерации. М.Богданов добавил, что внешнеполитическая линия России на Ближнем Востоке носит последовательный и принципиальный характер. Особо ярко он проявился в последние годы на фоне возникших в регионе острых внутриполитических кризисов. Кроме того, по словам представителя МИД, Россия всегда выступала за мирное решение проблем без применения силовых сценариев.

В мероприятии приняли участие чрезвычайный и полномочный посол Республики Ирак Ш.Мусхин, посол Арабской Республики Египет М.Эль-Бадри, посол Сирийской Республики Р.Хаддад.

Во время заседания были затронуты многие актуальные мировые вопросы, а все выступающие указали на необходимость плодотворного, тесного взаимодействия между Россией и регионом Ближнего Востока. «Невозможно приравнивать ислам к терроризму! Это очень большая ошибка», — заявил посол Египта в России в своем выступлении.

Кроме этого, среди гостей мероприятия был представитель Совета муфтиев России, который с удовлетворением отметил, что религия стала таким же важным аспектом в общественной жизни, как бизнес и политика.

В завершение заместитель председателя совета ассоциации российских дипломатов, советник заместителя председателя Совета Федерации Федерального Собрания РФ А.Бакланов отметил, что российская школа арабистов имеет международное признание, а благодаря усилиям руководства МГИМО, она по многим направлением продолжает занимать лидирующие позиции в научных исследованиях. Кроме того, А.Бакланов подчеркнул, что арабские страны важны для России как в экономическом, так и в политическом плане.

Ближневосточная неделя продлится до 15 мая. В рамках мероприятия пройдут круглые столы с участием ведущих экспертов-востоковедов России, послов и представителей дипломатических миссий, а также презентации книг и кинопоказы. В рамках мероприятия в атриуме нового корпуса состоялось также открытие художественных выставок.

После яркой и запоминающейся церемонии открытия «Ближневосточной недели МГИМО» прошли две уникальные по своей теме, составу участников и накалу страстей панельные дискуссии: «Развитие экономических отношений между Россией и странами Ближнего Востока: препятствия и перспективы» и «Межкультурные коммуникации и образ Ближнего Востока в мировых СМИ: как бороться со стереотипами» и панель-диалог с заместителем председателя Совета директоров ЗАО АКБ «Интерпромбанк», президентом Фонда «Взаимодействие цивилизаций» Р.Эмануиловым о проблемах международного терроризма и экстремизма.

В ходе дискуссии «Развитие экономических отношений между Россией и странами Ближнего Востока: препятствия и перспективы» обсуждался широкий спектр вопросов экономического взаимодействия между странами Ближнего Востока и России. С интересным докладом-обзором экономических и деловых отношений нашей страны и арабских государств выступил директор Российско-Арабского делового совета В.Луценко. С глубоким и серьезным докладом, затрагивающим вопросы экономического взаимодействия России и Ближнего Востока, выступил А.Федорченко. Особый интерес вызвала яркая речь Р.Эмануилова, который осветил вопрос исламского банкинга — тему острую, необычную и, как оказалось, очень интересную аудитории.

Дискуссия «Межкультурные коммуникации и образ Ближнего Востока в мировых СМИ: как бороться со стереотипами» прошла не менее оживленно. Модератором выступила А.Беликова (Russia Today на арабском языке). Многонациональный состав секции сделал дискуссию еще более острой. Среди принимавших участие были Аль-Хамза Махмуд Хамо (РАН), один из старейших и известнейших арабских журналистов в России (СССР), Н.Сухов, Б.Долгов, Л.Раванди-Фадаи и многие другие. Участники сошлись во мнении о необходимости проводить регулярные встречи на эту тему, вырабатывать общие подходы. Также была выдвинута идея о проведении отдельной встречи, посвященной проблеме образа России в арабских СМИ.

13 мая прошли сдвоенные круглые столы. Ведущие эксперты МГИМО, ИВ РАН, НИУ ВШЭ и гости Ближневосточной недели обсудили йеменский кризис. Эксперты сошлись во мнении, что сейчас ситуация развивается в негативном русле, что может оказать значительное влияние на стабильность и внутриполитическую ситуацию внутри Саудовской Аравии и деструктивно воздействовать на общерегиональную обстановку, которая и без йеменского кризиса балансирует на грани полной катастрофы. Ключевым спикером дискуссии выступил один из лучших экспертов России по Йемену С.Серебров (МЭО’75). Также приняли участие В.Попов, К.Труевцев, Н.Сухов, Б.Долгов, Т.Карасова, Т.Носенко и многие другие знаменитые эксперты-востоковеды. В том же составе эксперты обсудили комплексные конфликтные узлы и потенциал международных игроков в их урегулировании. Дискуссию виртуозно провел В.Попов.

После заседания прошли презентации книг Т.Карасовой «Израиль и США: основные этапы становления стратегического партнерства 1948–2014» и Н.Сологубовского и А.Подцероба «Сахара: Лувр под открытым небом», после чего авторы показали свой фильм о петроглифах в Сахарской пустыне. Для студентов и гостей с открытой лекцией об итогах модернизации в Саудовской Аравии на рубеже XX—XXI вв. выступил А.Яковлев, профессор факультета мировой политики МГУ, ведущий научный сотрудник Центра арабских и исламских исследований Института востоковедения РАН.

14 мая в рамках Ближневосточной недели МГИМО состоялся круглый стол на тему «Средиземноморье: перекресток трех миров. Будущее супер-региона в трансформирующемся мире». В дискуссии приняли участие послы Алжира, Марокко, Турции, представитель посольства Италии, российские эксперты и гости Ближневосточной недели. Общение проходило в режиме свободного обмена мнениями на английском языке. Собравшиеся отметили важность рассмотрения темы будущего Средиземноморского региона в рамках мероприятий недели, поскольку стратегическая и глобальная важность Средиземноморья как региональной единицы и изучения его в таком аспекте в России достаточно сильно недооценена. Участники сошлись во мнении, что до тех пор, пока есть недопонимание между двумя берегами Средиземного моря, политика превосходства одной части над другой, отсутствие равноправного свободного диалога — образование единого Средиземноморья невозможно. Однако сейчас идет переосмысление многих проблем и осознание стратегической важности единства для предотвращения распространения глобальных угроз. Параллельно с этим прошел круглый стол, посвященный энергетической дипломатии России на Ближнем Востоке, организованный Международным институтом энергетической политики и дипломатии МГИМО и научно-студенческим клубом «Мировая энергетическая политика».

15 мая Ближневосточная неделя МГИМО завершилась «Днем Египта». Это государство занимает особое место в отношениях России с Ближним Востоком, являясь ее союзником и надежным партнером в регионе. Перед собравшимися выступил посол Арабской Республики Египет Мохамед Эль Бадри и приглашенный гость с египетской стороны генеральный секретарь Федерации египетских ТПП Алаа Эзз. Господин посол и доктор Алаа Эзз выступили с интересными докладами, посвященным отношениям Египта и России. Наши страны имеют длительную историю двусторонних отношений, которые всегда основывались на глубоком взаимном уважении, доверии, сотрудничестве, дружбе. С приходом к власти президента Абдель Фатаха ас-Сиси отношения пошли в гору. Страны объединяют общие вызовы и общие интересы. Потенциал сотрудничества колоссален и многие его аспекты сторонам только еще предстоит освоить. По окончании ярких выступлений спикеров гости Ближневосточной недели задали множество вопросов, касающихся и гуманитарного сотрудничества, и культурного взаимодействия, а также строительства Россией атомной электростанции и возведения новой современной столицы, проблем безопасности. Особенно гости оценили прозвучавшие на арабском языке вопросы студентов. Собравшиеся продолжили беседу за вкушением блюд египетской кухни, специально приготовленных по случаю Дня Египта в рамках Ближневосточной недели поваром посольства.

Погрузиться в культуру Ближнего Востока гости могли, посетив выставки картин и фотографий. Кроме того, в течение двух дней в МГИМО проходили показы арабского кино с субтитрами: «Хассан и Моркус» (2008), «Письма моря» (2010) и «Болтия Эль-Айма» (2008).

Ближневосточная неделя стала знаковым мероприятием в жизни московского востоковедения, начав, в год 200-летия Лазаревского института восточных языков, новую главу. С этого года и впредь Ближневосточные недели будут проводиться регулярно.

Ближневосточная неделя организована International Middle Eastern Studies Club, МГИМО и Институтом востоковедения РАН при поддержке Фонда развития, Ассоциации выпускников и Ближневосточного клуба МГИМО. Официальным партнером Недели выступил «Интерпромбанк».