Суббота, 12 Март 2016 00:48

US-Russian deal for Syrian ceasefire is only option that leads to de-escalation

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Although Riyadh and Ankara are independent players whose interests are not always aligned with those of Washington, they will most likely support the deal promoted by the United States and Russia.
Earlier this week, Russia and the United States agreed on a new ceasefire for Syria that would take effect Saturday. Valdai Club expert Irina Zvyagelskaya believes the deal can seriously change the situation on the ground.

“This agreement is the only option for Syria that can de-escalate the conflict or at least lay the groundwork for de-escalation,” Zvyagelskaya, senior fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, told Valdaiclub.comin a telephone interview Wednesday.

“The deal has demonstrated once again that Russia and the US have common political interests. Both Russia and the United States recognize that the Syrian conflict has no military solution and a political mechanism must be launched,” she pointed out.

“It is important that Moscow and Washington, as they are trying to broker a peace deal, can rely on a broad group of countries, which share their goals,” she said referring to the International Syria Support Group (ISSG).

Zvyagelskaya singled out several problems she believes will arise during the deal implementation. “First of all, it will be hard to establish who observes the deal and who does not,” she said. “It means that those parties to the conflict which are ready to cease fire must explicitly claim that,” the scholar pointed out.

Russia has played a significant role by persuading the Syrian government to start negotiating with those opposition forces, which are ready for peace, Zvyagelskaya said. “Now it is crucial that the United States uses its clout to mitigate the positions of the forces it supports,” she added.

Asked if other countries of the region, which are known to support opposition forces in Syria, could prevent implementation of the deal, the scholar said she did not expect Turkey or Saudi Arabia to disrupt the agreement. “Although Riyadh and Ankara are independent players whose interests are not always aligned with those of Washington, they will most likely support the deal promoted by the United States and Russia,” Zvyagelskaya said.
 
Initially published by Valdai Club
Прочитано 9006 раз
Ирина Звягельская

Образование: Ленинградский государственный университет, 1960.
Кандидатская диссертация: "Роль армии в формировании внешней и внутренней политики Израиля", ИМЭМО, 1976; докторская диссертация: "Политика США в конфликтах на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке при администрации Картера и Рейгана", Институт востоковедения АН СССР, 1990.
Профессиональная деятельность: С 1970 по 1979 г. работала в ИМЭМО АН СССР. С 1979 г. по настоящее время работает в Институте востоковедения РАН. В 1992 преподавала в Американском университете (Каир). Читала лекции в университетах США, стран Западной Европы; регулярно выступает на международных конференциях и симпозиумах.
Зав. сектором международных вопросов Центра арабских исследований Института востоковедения РАН . C 1991 г. — зам. директора МОО Центр стратегических и политических исследований. С 2001 г. — профессор кафедры востоковедения МГИМО.
Автор более 100 печатных работ на русском, английском, немецком и французском языках, включая книги и главы в коллективных монографиях. Член диссертационных советов Института Востоковедения РАН и Института стран Азии и Африки.
Иностранные языки: английский, французский.

Научные интересы: Конфликтные ситуации, проблемы безопасности, международные отношения (преимущественно на Ближнем Востоке и в Центральной Азии).