Sunday, 01 March 2015 16:52

#TeaTalk with Tatiana Karasova: Discussing the Arab-Israeli conflict Featured

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Маria Dubovikova: The shelling of Gaza in 2014 has killed over 2000 people, many civilians. After that a new wave of Palestine recognition was launched by European countries. How much did it influence on the perception of the conflict abroad, in the West? Did it hammer one more nail in Arab-Israeli conflict regulation?

 

Tatiana Karasova : We can answer this question in a simple way, and that will be an inaccurate answer and distortion.  And we can give a much more complex answer to explain what is going on. If to answer lapidary, yes, it has hammed one more nail in a coffin, there is a change in relations, after that shelling European countries pronounce for the recognition of the Palestinian State. Yes. And yes. And once again yes. And now let’s investigate the situation. Such escalations take place every two years. This happens not by chance! These 2000 people are dead, even if there were only 200 victims – to count by the piece is immoral. One child dead – this is enough.

The victims are inevitable in every escalation of the conflict but still the both sides are ready to a confrontation. Such a question is delicate and improper.

On the one hand this cyclicity is caused by the fact that one of the side arms itself, and at some point this party decides to go to the provocation, that inevitably will result in civilian casualties. This side deliberately goes for it. They perfectly know how their provocation will end up, knowing the Israeli’s law «Symmetrical retaliation». Under symmetrical retaliation Israel understands surgical strikes on the provocateurs and fire suppression of the launching points. The tunnels with people inside and the HAMAS leaders who fare clearly known to be the ideological inspirers are under the strikes.

Knowing the consequences, these representatives of Hamas go to apartment houses on purpose. What does Israel do? It drops leaflets on these houses, on the whole residential area, warning the civilians about the timing of the strikes against the certain persons and artillery systems, asking the civilians to leave the area. What happens next? Civilians don’t leave the area, as those who are in the basement don’t let them leave. Then comes a surgical strike aimed at the basement, but the whole building is pulled down. And someone passes by this house, children are playing. And the neighboring house is also destroyed as these building crashes. It happens every time. There is nobody who is completely culpable or right. This is a mean warfare provoked by the both parties.

 

M.D.: The motivation for Hamas is quite obvious. They gain additional support through the broad-scale media campaign and by the price of lives of Palestinians killed during Israeli bombardments and they also receive a required reaction of the international community. This reaction was not expressed only on the international arena but within the countries as well. For example, there were marches to express support for Palestine in France that once again have finished by the acts of vandalism.

 

T.K.: Absolutely true. But not only that.

 

M.D.: But what is the motive for Israel?

 

T.K.: Their motive is very simple. As soon as the Israeli territory is under fire, the enemy must be absolutely sure that the retaliation will be imminent, as it is an attack against a sovereign state.

 

M.D.: And what about the settlements construction? Israel is indeed escalating situation in this case? And the same question concerning the destruction of the Palestinians houses.

 

T.K.: No. It is a very tricky question. One should tell the propaganda from the truth. There is so much confusion and lies that everybody forget, that no settlements were built in more than 15 years.

 

M.D.: But the intentions are voiced!

 

T.K. Wait, there are no new settlements. Moreover, if a crazy settler attempts to build a strong point it is immediately destroyed by the IDF itself. In reality the situation is the following – a settlement built in 1952 inhabited that time by 100 persons is now inhabited by 2500. That is why apartment houses are built on the place of 60 years old dens. That is why their number has increased 5-6 times. They must have somewhere to live. It is not an expansion of settlements. And the discussion of the freezing or moratorium of the settlements is about building within the current borders of the settlements, about increasing the residential potential.

 

M.D.: This means that the words of Netanyahu are deliberately distorted and are presented in the altered sense?

 

T.K.: Yes. Why? Just because it is like a red rag for the community and all the more for the Palestinians. We are strengthening and expanding these settlements, thus we are not going to abandon them. Thus the new families will give birth to more babies. Thus new houses should be built.

 

M.D.: And the International Court…

 

T.K.: It is very selective, as we know.

 

M.D.: Netanyahu’s reaction on the decision of the Court to hear the case of strikes on Gaza was straightforward. He accused the Court of betraying its own principles.

 

T.K.: De rigore juris it is correct. But from my opinion the worst thing that can happen is the demonstrative recognition of the Palestinian state from the outside organizations or countries witout the conflict’ setllement. It will be a catastrophe primarily for the Palestinian state itself as it will be obliged to comply to all the legal standards of a state. They are too naïve believing that they will be able to oppose Israel in the Hague Tribunal – the loads of counter lawsuits are already being prepared by Israeli legal bodies. They already have them both for the current complaints and for the moment when Palestine becomes a state. The Palestinian administration is currently supplied by the electricity and fuel by Israel. As soon as Palestine becomes a state Israel will say “It is time to pay! Pay according to the market prices!”. And finally, the most important thing – while they are “a suffering Palestinian people”, they are sponsored by different, mainly Arabian countries

 

M.D.: That means that the situation is in a complete stalemate. We are unable to return to the solutions proposed in Oslo and even in the Arab Peace Initiative.

 

T.K.: The paradox of the situation is that it is really impossible now and in the nearest future. Just for example because of political situation in the Middle East. Every time Israel destroys the HAMAS infrastructure and kills its leadership, the new, more radical leaders come, Saudi Arabia and others offer some money, and in two years we can expect new provocations and escalation. Israel has inflicted major damage to the infrastructure now. On the one hand they were hiding their own mistakes – dozens of tunnels with wagon circulation were dug in Mossad’s own backyard, and nobody knew about it! But I believe that they do not have this two-year timeout this time, because Saudi Arabia had conflict with Qatar and in revenge it has stopped supporting HAMAS. HAMAS does not have much money now. And how to raise money? – Exclusively by a provocation. The civilians will die again as they are always a shield for HAMAS. The money will flow again.

 

M.D.: Speaking about Jihadism that spreads all over the region – now there are more and more radical groups all over the Middle East swearing allegiance to ISIS. What is the probability that the Palestinians, radical wings of the movements, mainly of HAMAS, will also side with ISIS upgrading the conflict to a critical level?

 

T.K.: It is the worst-case scenario. And I do not believe in it. They are anybody but no fools. If the ISIS arrives there, HAMAS will be out of business, the situation will be completely different there. Ramallah needs changes, Abbas does not have any official authority and thinks only about keeping his office, and he will no longer be needed after the recognition of the Palestinian state. It will be nice to replace him by, let’s say, Fayad as he was responsible for Ramalla’s develohment, and he is aware of what Israel is doing. Palestine needs moderate authorities, those who have already achieved something and want to live better. Israel is ready to help, they just need to deradicalize. And such breakthrough may allow some changes, stabilization. Choosing better life over bad death opens way for the dialogue.

 

M.D.: The upcoming elections in Israel may deteriorate the situation – the balance shifts towards a more rigid nationalism in Israel.

 

T.K.: The archaism does exist, however there is a secular wall that hinders the archaic initiatives. It is a very interesting situation with the elections. There is an attempt to unite all the left wing forces, but there are no proper political figures among them. Isaac Herzog, son of the President Herzog, is a smart and very cultured man, but I doubt that he will be able to form a ruling coalition. After all the Israeli society is very right-wing oriented. Then it will be B. Netanyahu once again. The US intervene everywhere and openly support the left, trying to get rid of Netanyahu by any means. It is unclear whether they will succeed. If they do not fail – everything should be revised, because their program is close to Oslo. I was in Israel during the Oslo process, and when they were saying “There will be peace!” – I was responding, “Are you kidding?” And then there were Oslo 1 and 2, I myself have believed in peace. And then…

 

M.D.: Yitzhak Rabin was killed

 

T.K.: Yes… So not everything is clear here for now also. Let’s wait.

Read 10516 times Last modified on Thursday, 19 January 2017 01:02
Tatiana Karasova

Head of Israel studies Department at the Institute of Oriental Studies. Author of five books and teaching aids.